Week 11 Ranks: The Defenses

If you haven’t checked out my other week 11 ranks, here are the quarterbacks and running backs and here are the wide receivers and tight ends.

Defenses

Image1) Seattle Seahawks v Min

2) Arizona Cardinals @ Jax

3) Cincinnati Bengals v Cle

4) Cleveland Browns @ Cin

5) New England Patriots @ Car

6) Houston Texans v Oak

7) Green Bay Packers @ NYG

8) Buffalo Bills v NYJ

9) Denver Broncos v KC

10) New Orleans Saints v SF

11) Kansas City Chiefs @ Den

12) Carolina Panthers v NE

13) Tennessee Titans v Ind

14) New York Jets @ Buf

15) San Francisco 49ers @ NO

Twitter: @william_moy6

Email: william.moy16@gmail.com

Week 11 Ranks: The Pass Catchers

If you haven’t checked out my quarterback/running back ranks for week eleven yet make sure you do!

Wide Receivers

Image1) Calvin Johnson, Det @ Pit

2) Brandon Marshall, Chi v Bal

3) DeSean Jackson, Phi v Was

4) Demaryius Thomas, Den v KC

5) A.J. Green, Cin v Cle

6) Vincent Jackson, TB v Atl

7) Andre Johnson, Hou v Oak

8) Wes Welker, Den v KC

9) Pierre Garcon, Was @ Phi

10) Torrey Smith, Bal @ Chi

11) Antonio Brown, Pit v Det

12) Alshon Jeffery, Chi v Bal

13) Victor Cruz, NYG v GB

14) Josh Gordon, Cle @ Cin

15) Jordy Nelson, GB @ NYG

16) T.Y. Hilton, Ind @ Ten

17) Larry Fitzgerald, Ari @ Jax

18) Eric Decker, Den v KC

19) Keenan Allen, SD @ Mia

20) Danny Amendola, NE @ Car

21) Riley Cooper, Phi v Was

22) Cecil Shorts, Jax v Ari

23) James Jones, GB @ NYG

24) Harry Douglas, Atl @ TB

25) Golden Tate, Sea v Min

26) Marvin Jones, Cin v Cle

27) Jarrett Boykin, GB @ NYG

28) Hakeem Nicks, NYG v GB

29) Kenny Stills, NO v SF

30) Aaron Dobson, NE @ Car

31) Steve Smith, Car v NE

32) Marques Colston, NO v SF

33) Kendall Wright, Ten v Ind

34) Percy Harvin, Sea v Min

35) Anquan Boldin, SF @ NO

36) Rishard Matthews, Mia v SD

37) Tiquan Underwood, TB v Atl

38) Emmanuel Sanders, Pit v Det

39) Andre Roberts, Ari @ Jax

40) Rueben Randle, NYG v GB

41) Marlon Brown, Bal @ Chi

42) Nate Washington, Ten v Ind

43) Deandre Hopkins, Hou v Oak

44) Mike Wallace, Mia v SD

45) Dwayne Bowe, KC @ Den

46) Jerricho Cotchery, Pit v Det

47) Doug Baldwin, Sea v Min

48) Jermaine Kearse, Sea v Min

49) Stephen Hill, NYJ @ Buf

50) Mike Brown, Jax v Ari

Tight Ends

Jaguars Bills Football1) Rob Gronkowski, NE @ Car

2) Jimmy Graham, NO v SF

3) Julius Thomas, Den v KC

4) Antonio Gates, SD @ Mia

5) Jordan Cameron, Cle @ Cin

6) Jordan Reed, Was @ Phi

7) Vernon Davis, SF @ NO

8) Charles Clay, Mia v SD

9) Martellus Bennett, Chi v Bal

10) Greg Olsen, Car v NE

11) Coby Fleener, Ind @ Ten

12) Scott Chandler, Buf v NYJ

13) Timothy Wright, TB v Atl

14)  Delanie Walker, Ten v Ind

15) Dallas Clark, Bal @ Chi

Twitter: @william_moy6

Email: william.moy16@gmail.com

Week 11 Ranks: The ‘Backs

I hope everybody had a good week ten!  Strictly business this week, let’s dive into the rankings for week eleven!

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, Tony Overman The News Tribune1) Drew Brees, NO v SF

2) Peyton Manning, Den v KC

3) Russell Wilson, Sea v Min

4) Matthew Stafford, Det @ Pit

5) Robert Griffin III, Was @ Phi

6) Nick Foles, Phi v Was

7) Tom Brady, NE @ Car

8) Cam Newton, Car v NE

9) Colin Kaepernick, SF @ NO

10) Andrew Luck, Ind @ Ten

11) Philip Rivers, SD @ Mia

12) Alex Smith, KC @ Den

13) Ben Roethlisberger, Pit v Det

14) Ryan Tannehill, Mia v SD

15) Matt Ryan, Atl @ TB

16) Carson Palmer, Ari @ Jax

17) Josh McCown, Chi v Bal

18) Joe Flacco, Bal @ Chi

19) Mike Glennon, TB v Atl

20) Case Keenum, Hou v Oak

21) Jason Campbell, Cle @ Cin

22) Geno Smith, NYJ @ Buf

23) Andy Dalton, Cin v Cle

24) Terrelle Pryor, Oak @ Hou

25) Eli Manning, NYG v GB

26) Scott Tolzien, GB @ NYG

27) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten v Ind

28) EJ Manuel, Buf v NYJ

29) Chad Henne, Jax v Ari

30) Christian Ponder, Min @ Sea

Running Back

Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals1) Adrian Peterson, Min @ Sea

2) Jamaal Charles, KC @ Den

3) LeSean McCoy, Phi v Was

4) Marshawn Lynch, Sea v Min

5) Reggie Bush, Det @ Pit

6) Alfred Morris, Was @ Phi

7) Eddie Lacy, GB @ NYG

8) Matt Forte, Chi v Bal

9) Knowshon Moreno, Den v KC

10) Frank Gore, SF @ NO

11) Giovani Bernard, Cin v Cle

12) Le’Veon Bell, Pit v Det

13) Ben Tate, Hou v Oak

14) Andre Brown, NYG v GB

15) Andre Ellington, Ari @ Jax

16) Stevan Ridley, NE @ Car

17) Chris Ivory, NYJ @ Buf

18) Fred Jackson, Buf v NYJ

19) Danny Woodhead, SD @ Mia

20) Ryan Mathews, SD @ Mia

21) Chris Johnson, Ten v Ind

22) Pierre Thomas, NO v SF

23) Rashad Jennings, Oak @ Hou

24) Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax v Ari

25) Rashard Mendenhall, Ari @ Jax

26) Lamar Miller, Mia v SD

27) Darren Sproles, NO v SF

28) Steven Jackson, Atl @ TB

29) Bilal Powell, NYJ @ Buf

30) Shane Vereen, NE @ Car

31) C.J. Spiller, Buf v NYJ

32) Donald Brown, Ind @ Ten

33) Mike Tolbert, Car v NE

34) Shonn Greene, Ten v Ind

35) Ray Rice, Bal @ Chi

36) Trent Richardson, Ind @ Ten

37) Deangelo Williams, Car v NE

38) Jonathan Stewart, Car v NE

39) Brian Leonard, TB v Atl

40) Joique Bell, Det @ Pit

Week 10: Free Agent Finds

Alright ladies and gents it’s time for this weeks edition of free agent finds.  The purpose of this weekly column is to provide fantasy owners with last second options.  Let me paint this scenario for you: you wake up at 10:00 on Sunday morning after a nice long weekend of debauchery staying up late studying and it dawns on you that you haven’t updated your fantasy team yet for the week.  You log onto your team and you realize that you have Aaron Rodgers as your only quarterback and two out of the three running backs on your team are out on bye this week.  What can you do?  At this point it’s too late to make a trade with somebody and you’ve probably missed out on all of the hot waiver wire pick ups from earlier in the week so you’re stuck with whatever is on free agency.  In most leagues you are able to make pick ups and edit players on your roster right up until their individual kick offs.  Last week one of my good friends who works on the weekends realized at 4:30 on Sunday afternoon that he had Reggie Bush in his starting lineup who was out on a bye, and the only running back on his bench was Pierre Thomas who was locked because the Saints had already played.  He ventured over to free agency where I suggested he pick up James Starks, he made the move and Starks was able to save him from a donut with a ten point performance.  When you’re stuck in this situation– and let’s admit it, we’ve all faced similar scenarios to this before– picking up anyone is better than taking a zero so my goal is to single out the guys who are widely available who can not only prevent you from getting a zero this week but can actually contribute in a meaningful way.

If you haven’t had a chance to check out the ranks yet make sure you do (quarterbacks/running backs, wide receivers/tight ends, defenses) and of course my love/hate as well!  This is going to be it for week 10 but as always, if you have any questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter @william_moy6 or via email at william.moy16@gmail.com.  Good luck with week 10 and we’ll reconvene back here in week 11!

Quarterbacks

Terrelle Pryor

I should really just rename the quarterback section my weekly plea for people to pick up Terrelle-PryorTerrelle Pryor because I’m fairly certain that he’s made this list every single week… and every single week he’s put up a respectable fantasy performance.  Pryor has yet to have a week with single digit fantasy points– something that can’t be said about Brady, Romo, Newton, Luck, RG3, Kaepernick, Wilson, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Smith, Dalton, Flacco and Tannehill– and his floor is so high because he’s yet to have a game this season where he hasn’t rushed for at least 30 yards and he’s picked up at least 50 yards on the ground in five out of his seven games.  Pryor has 485 rushing yards this season which is 15th in the NFL– not 15th among quarterbacks, 15th among the ENTIRE NFL– and he has 110 rushing yards more than Russell Wilson’s 375 (2nd among quarterbacks).  Terrelle Pryor is averaging 70 rushing yards a game this season, just think about what that means fantasy wise……….. still giving you time to let it set in………… just a little bit more……….. alright times up: Terrelle Pryor is averaging seven fantasy points a game from his rushing yards alone.  That’s seven fantasy points before he has even thrown the ball once.  Pryor’s rushing ability provides him with a floor that no other quarterback in the NFL has and if you need to find somebody to fill in for your bye week quarterback are there really better options out there than a guy who is money in the bank to score double digit points?  It’s baffled me all year long that Pryor’s ownership isn’t closer to 100%.  Pryor is my 11th ranked quarterback this week as the Raiders look to bounce back against a Giants defense that has faced two mobile quarterbacks this season– Cam Newton and three quarters of Michael Vick– and in those two games they gave up a combined 124 rushing yards and one touchdown to the running quarterbacks.  Pryor has scored in the double digits every game and I see no reason to expect a lesser result this week.  Pryor is available in 65% of ESPN leagues and in 57% of Yahoo! leagues.

Jake Locker

Jake Locker is another guy this week who I believe has a very safe floor and a really high ceiling.  The Jaguars have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and lockertd2they’re the Terrelle Pryor of passing defenses– they haven’t held a quarterback to single digit fantasy points once this season.  The Jaguars are last in the NFL with only three interceptions, 25th in the NFL having given up 16 passing touchdowns, 31st in the NFL with 11 sacks and last in the NFL in opponents quarterback rating (106.0).  On top of that the Jaguars have also allowed quarterback to rush for three touchdowns against them and Locker loves to punch it in himself if the opportunity strikes in the red zone, he has two rushing touchdowns in six games this season.  Locker is my 12th ranked quarterback this week and he easily has the upside to finish higher then that.  Locker is available in 76% of ESPN leagues and in 63% of Yahoo! leagues.

Deep League QB

Mike Glennon

Mike Glennon has quietly had a very nice run ever since the Buccaneers returned from their bye mike glennon, Brian Blanco APweek four weeks ago.  Glennon has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of those games and has only thrown one interception in the four game span.  The rookie out of North Carolina State has really impressed me so far and he looks better and better every time he takes the field.  Glennon has a very good arm that allows him to throw an effective deep ball and it also helps him fit the ball into tight spaces.  Glennon is by no means a mobile quarterback but he has a very good sense of when the pocket and he has shown that he is capable of rolling out to both sides and throwing on the move.  Glennon doesn’t have the easiest matchup this week against the Dolphins but he managed to score 15 points against both the Seahawks and the Panthers and both of those teams have very strong pass defenses.  Glennon has been creeping up my rankings each week and this week he sits at number 18, I think he’s a solid QB2 and if you’re in a deeper league and need a guy for this week starting the Bucs quarterback may be the route to run with.  Glennon is available in 98% of ESPN leagues and in 93% of Yahoo! leagues.

Running Back

Mike James

With Doug Martin’s season officially being over– he was placed on IR this morning– it appears as Mike James has a job as the Bucs starting running back for the rest of the season and should mike james steve bisig usa todaybe picked up in all leagues.  I was a little skeptical of James at first but after watching him play a few games now I’m starting to buy in to his talent.  Since James has taken over the starting job he has rushed for 4.65 yards per carry which makes him 11th among all qualified running backs and he’s doing it by averaging 2.8 yards after contact.  The rookie out of Miami lead all running backs at the combine with 28 reps on the bench press and his strength is one of his most valuable assets and was on display last week in Seattle.  James isn’t going to amaze you with his speed but he has a pretty good initial burst that allows him to blast through the holes his line creates and he’s so strong that when he meets a defender in the hole he usually just runs him over.  James is a shorter, more compact running back (5’10″ 225 lbs) and his compactness along with his incredible strength make him a really balanced running back: when defenders hit him he just bounces off of them unless they wrap him up.  I think James should be owned in all leagues and I especially like his match up this week against the Dolphins.  The Dolphins have given up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs this season and they have allowed eight rushing touchdowns in their last five games.  James is available in 69% of ESPN leagues and in 35% of Yahoo! leagues.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0ap2000000276224/RB-James-21-yd-run

^^^Beastly run by James last week, he completely runs over Earl Thomas at the end of it^^^

Shonn Greene

The Titans get to play the Jaguars who own what is without a doubt the worst run defense in the Shonn Greene, Perry Riley, Jarvis JenkinsNFL.  The Jaguars are giving up the most yards per game (161) they have given up the most rushing touchdowns (13) and the 4th most yards per carry (4.8).  Teams are averaging 34 rushing attempts per game against the Jaguars and I would be extremely surprised if the Titans fell short of that number this weekend.  Greene should be in line for 12-15 touches and if/when the Titans find themselves around the goal line there is a strong chance that he’s the guy who’s getting the ball– three of Greene’s nine carries last week came inside St. Louis’ ten yard line.  I look to pounce on any running back who has a meaningful role and is playing against the Jaguars and Greene fits the criteria.  The former Jet-now-Titan is 27th in my running back ranks this week (ahead of Trent Richardson and Ray Rice) and I would not be shocked at all if he gets two short touchdowns and outperforms that ranking.  Greene is available in 47% of ESPN leagues and in 78% of Yahoo! leagues.

Deep League RB

Donald Brown

No other running back in the NFL is even remotely close to Browns 6.3 yards per carry and he’s doubled teammate Trent Richardson’s 3.1 yards per carry.  The only issue with Brown’s game donald brown scott boehm getty imagesfrom a fantasy standpoint is that the Colts have been reluctant to shy away from their star acquisition in order to give Brown more work.  If you’re in a deeper league though where guys like Mike James, Shonn Greene and Andre Brown are already owned and you’re forced to pick up a running back who isn’t guaranteed ten touches I think Donald Brown is a guy you should consider.  The Rams have given up the 4th most fantasy points to running backs this season and opposing rushers are gaining 4.4 yards per carry against them.  Brown is averaging just over five fantasy points a game in his last four tilts and against a poor Rams defense I see that being his floor again this weekend and if Richardson continues to struggle and the Colts begin to give Brown more work then his ceiling could be rather high.  Brown is available in 94% of ESPN leagues and in 85% of Yahoo! leagues.

If you’re desperate running backs…

Dennis Johnson

If you’re in a 14-16 team league and you desperately need a running back for this week so you NFL: Preseason-Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikingsdon’t take a zero then Dennis Johnson is likely going to be the guy available to you who at least can prevent you from taking a zero.  Arian Foster is going to miss another week (and potentially much longer) with his hamstring injury and Ben Tate is still running with four cracked ribs.  Johnson is going to backup Tate for the foreseeable future and Johnson is probably one big hit on Tate away from being the starting running back in Houston.  Johnson was given eight carries and rushed for 36 yards in his first game with the Texans last week and I’m expecting a pretty similar unspectacular day again this week.  If you’re in a deeper league I recommend picking up Johnson and stashing him on your bench because if Foster does end up missing an extended period of time and if Tate gets banged up too then all of a sudden you’ve got the Texans starting running back on your team.  I don’t recommend playing him this week though unless you are absolutely desperate.  If it’s 3:00 pm tomorrow though and you have nothing else then Johnson is at least a guy who has a shot at getting you a handful of points rather than taking a zero.  Johnson is available in 99.9% of ESPN leagues and in 92% of Yahoo! leagues.

Brian Leonard

If you’re in a deep PPR league and are desperate for a running back this week then Brian Leonard may very well be your guy.  I like Leonard much more than Johnson in PPR leagues andbrian leonard getty images he’s a guy who is pretty much universally available and has an actual shot at scoring you double digit fantasy points.  Leonard has established himself in the Bucs offense as their passing down back and as a result he has ten catches in his last two games.  Leonard is not a guy to consider in leagues that use standard scoring but in a PPR league where those ten catches turn into ten fantasy points he’s definitely a guy who should be on the radar.  Leonard is available in 99.8% of ESPN leagues and in 99% of Yahoo! leagues.

Wide Receivers

Kendall Wright

Consistency is the one word that immediately pops into my head when I think about Wright.  Kendall+Wright+otto greule jr getty imagesWright has had at least 50 receiving yards and five fantasy points in every single game this season except week one.  The second year receiver out of Baylor has had a very good year and if he had more than one touchdown then he would be an obvious top 30 wide receiver week in and week out.  If you take the touchdowns out of the equation though, Wright is top 30 in pretty much every wide receiver statistic.  He’s 26th in targets, 15th in receptions, 16th in catch %, 27th in yards and 8th in yards after the catch.  Wright leads the Titans in targets, receptions and receiving yards and has clearly established himself as Jake Lockers number one option in the passing attack.  Wright gets to go up against a Jaguars defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete over 65% and has given up 16 receiving touchdowns.  At the very least we should be able to count on Wright for over 50 yards again this weekend and given how easy it is to score on Jacksonville via the pass, maybe the Titans number one receiver can make it into the end zone for the first time since week two.  Wright is available in 62% of ESPN leagues and in 47% of Yahoo! leagues.

Marlon Brown

Marlon Brown resurfaced on the fantasy radar last week after he caught five passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort against Cleveland.  Brown is so much better of a receiver than Jacoby Jones or Tandon Doss and it looks like the Ravens are beginning to realize this as NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Brownswell– Brown played on the outside opposite Torrey Smith in two receiver sets and he ran exclusively out of the slot in three receiver sets last week.  Brown scored both of his touchdowns out of the slot last weekend and the Ravens were really able to exploit the match up problems Brown creates in man coverage from the slot.  Both touchdowns came when Brown was facing man coverage with a corner lined up on him: in his first touchdown there was a safety over the top and the outside receiver ran a deep post route which forced the safety into the middle of the field, Brown ran a deep out and found himself wide open because his man got confused with the linebacker who was supposed to be on the running back and then he was able to beat the safety to the pylon.  In his second touchdown Brown was in the slot again only there was no safety over the top.  Flacco recognized this immediately and called an audible to isolate Brown, the outside receiver ran a fade to the back of the end zone and Brown ran a quick out underneath and was able to secure the touchdown before either defender was able to reach him.  Brown is a match up nightmare out of the slot due to his size and athleticism and it was extremely encouraging to see the Ravens take advantage of the mismatches he creates.  I’m a big fan of Browns talent and it wouldn’t shock me if he finishes the season with double digit touchdowns.  The Bengals have a solid pass defense but they can be scored on and I like Browns individual match up, if he continues to play out of the slot then it’s likely he will have Chris Crocker lined up against him and Brown has five inches on him.  Brown is available in 92% of ESPN leagues and in 86% of Yahoo! leagues.

Deep Leagues

Mike Brown

In case your wondering, no I am not referring to the coach of the Cleveland Cavaliers, Mike Mike Brown Jack Dempsey APBrown is a rather unknown receiver from the Jaguars who has gotten a big boost in playing time due to the season ending suspension of Justin Blackmon.  In two games without Blackmon so far, Brown has caught eight balls for 163 yards, one touchdown and 22 fantasy points.  The Jaguars find themselves down in every game they play and they get blown out most weeks which provides them with plenty of opportunities to score points in junk time, making their players in some strange way fairly match up proof.  Brown has been targeted 14 times in the last two weeks and he should continue to see plenty of targets going forward.  I think Brown should be owned in all 14-16 team leagues and he’s worth consideration in shallower leagues as well.  Brown is available in 99% of ESPN leagues and in 90% of Yahoo! leagues.

Tiquan Underwood

Pretty similar story to Mike Brown.  Mike Williams went down with a season ending injury and Underwood has emerged as the number two wide receiver in Tampa, starting opposite of Vincent Jackson.  Underwood hasn’t done that much yet with the starting role but his tiquan underwoodproduction should increase as he and Mike Glennon build up more of a rapport with each other.  I don’t believe Underwood is worth a pick up in 10 or 12 team leagues but in deeper leagues it can be tough to find guys who are guaranteed to see a lot of playing time and Underwood has been on the field for 80% of the Bucs offensive snaps in the last two weeks.  Underwood caught his first touchdown of the season last week and as long as he’s going to be out on the field he should continue to get at least a few opportunities each game to make a play and that’s something that can’t be said about many of the receivers available in free agency in deeper leagues.  Underwood is available in 99.8% of ESPN leagues and in 99% of Yahoo! leagues.

Cole Beasley

If you are in a PPR league forget Mike Brown and Tiquan Underwood, Cole Beasley is your guy.  Beasley has had at least four catches in four out of his last five games and has scored double ronald martinez getty imagesdigit fantasy points (PPR scoring) in three out of his last five games.  Beasley ran a season high 36 pass routes last weekend and every single week it looks like the Cowboys are trying to feature him more and more.  The Cowboys love going to Beasley out of the slot and they should because he has shown so far this year that he’s capable of being one of the most reliable slot receivers in football.  Beasley has ran 131 routes so far this season and 93% of them have been out of the slot, he has been targeted 28 times out of the slot and has 23 receptions which gives him a catch rate of 82% which is second only to Eric Decker (Decker has only ran 20 routes out of the slot though) and 56% of those catches have resulted in a first down.  The Cowboys trust Beasley in must have short yardage situations and as long as he keeps coming through for them there is no reason to think his role is going to decrease.  If you’re in any sort of PPR format I think Beasley should be considered for a pick up and if you’re in a 14-16 team league then he definitely needs to be owned.  I think Beasley is going to be a top 40 receiver going forward in PPR leagues and the upside to maybe even crack the top 30 if his roll continues to increase as the season progresses.  Beasley is available in 99.4% of ESPN leagues and in 97% of Yahoo! leagues.

Tight End

Garrett Graham

I love Garrett Graham this week.  For being a solid defensive unit overall, the Arizona Cardinals are absolutely pathetic at stopping the tight end.  The Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season and it hasn’t even been close– they’re the only team who is garrett graham jonathan daniel getty imagesgiving up more than 10 points a game to tight ends… they’re giving up 14.5.  They have allowed tight ends to score multiple touchdowns on them in four out of eight games and they have given up 25 fantasy points to an opposing tight end on three separate occasions this year.  Graham has yet to make it into the endzone with Case Keenum as his quarterback but he’s still being targeted a bunch (18 targets in his last three games) and I expect the Cardinals to make an extra effort to stop Andre Johnson and Deandre Hopkins on the outside which should hopefully lead to lots of free space for Graham to operate in.  Graham is available in 77% of ESPN leagues and in 70% of Yahoo! leagues.

Timothy Wright

Washington Redskins v Tampa Bay BuccaneersWright made my love list this week so if you’d like to read about him in more detail you should check it out.  Wright has touchdowns now in back to back weeks and has emerged as a favorite target of Mike Glennon.  Wright’s quickness and athleticism allows him to create mismatches all over the field and Glennon and the Bucs have increasingly gotten better at exploiting those mismatches.  Wright is available in 95% of leagues and in 65% of Yahoo! leagues.

Defense

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When I look to spot start a defense I like to focus on individual matchups.  The Dolphins have done a very poor job with pass protection this season– the 35 sacks they have given up is the most in the NFL– and their weak offensive line has taken quite a blow over the last week.  If you play fantasy football then you are most likely aware of the firestorm that has taken place down in Miami for the past few weeks but in case you aren’t, the Dolphins will be without their starting left guard and left tackle for the foreseeable future which means an already shaky line just got shakier.  Losing left guard, Richie Incognito will especially be a big blow for the Dolphins offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, Incognito has allowed the 10th fewest pressures (combined number of sacks, hits and hurries) among all guards with only 11 and he was ranked 15th among guards in pass blocking efficiency.  To sum up the Dolphins offensive line situation heading into Monday night: they will be starting Tyson Clabo and Bryant McKinnie in their two tackle spots which may make up the worst combination of tackles in the league and in place of their pro bowl left guard will be a backup.  The Buccaneers have arguably the best blitzing weak side linebacker in all of football in Lavonte David, who leads all weak side linebackers with seven sacks (second closest has three) and 22 total pressures (second closest has 15).  The Bucs also have two very good pass rushers up the middle with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and middle line backer Mason Foster.  McCoy is second behind only Ndamukong Suh with 35 total pressures and Foster is 4th among middle linebackers with 12.  I expect Lavonte David to absolutely have his way with Clabo and McKinnie on Monday night and McCoy and Foster should be able to generate plenty of pressure up the middle as well.  This is a very good match up for Tampa defense that is playing at home on national television in search for their first win.  I’d bet that the Bucs do indeed get win number one on Monday night and their defense should be a big reason why.  The Buccaneers defense is available in 91% of ESPN leagues and in 67% of Yahoo! leagues.

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Week 10: Hate List

Happy Friday everybody!  The counterpart to this weeks hate list can be found right here: week 10 love list.  And if you haven’t had a chance to check out my ranks yet (quarterbacks/running backs, wide receivers/tight ends, defenses) make sure you do and be sure to check back tomorrow afternoon for my last minute free agent finds!

Hate List

Matt Ryan

After not scoring fewer than 15 fantasy points in any of his first six games, Matt Ryan has been held to just 15 total fantasy points in his Imagelast two games.  The Seahawks have held Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Andrew Luck to 15 or fewer fantasy points and only one quarterback all season (Matt Schaub ironically) has scored more than 15 fantasy points on them all season.  The Seahawks defense is 1st in the NFL with 13 interceptions, 3rd with 29 sacks, 2nd in terms of passing yards allowed per game with only 180 and they’ve given up the 4th fewest touchdown passes only allowing 9.  The Falcons are expecting Roddy White back this week but I doubt he’ll cause many issues for Richard Sherman and the rest of the Seahawk secondary in his first game since week five.  The Falcons offense has been sinking ever since Julio Jones went down and I wouldn’t want anything to do with Matt Ryan until it’s clear they’ve righted the ship, especially in a week where he’s facing the best secondary in football.  I have Ryan ranked 19th this week, behind guys like Jake Locker, Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Glennon.

Ray Rice

According to Pro Football Focus, there are 51 running backs who have played in at least 25% of their teams offensive snaps this season.  Of those 51 running backs, none of them have been graded more poorly than Ray Rice this season.  According to Pro Football Focus, Rice has by far and away been the worst running back in the NFL in terms of just rushing the football and in overall performanceImage as well.  Rice is 49th with 2.7 yards per carry, 51st with 1.4 yards after contact per attempt, 47th with a longest run of only 14 yards and 46th with only 4 missed tackles.  If we look into the more advanced statistics we can also see that he’s 51st with an 8.1 elusive rating which attempts to measure the impact of a runner with the ball independent of the blocking in front of them by looking at how hard the player is to bring down (Adrian Peterson leads the NFL with an 82.2 elusive rating, Matt Forte is 26th with a 35.7 rating and Willis McGahee is 50th with a 15.6 rating).  If you’ve seen Rice play at all this year than these numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise to you.  Rice has looked like a shell of himself, he lacks burst and he has absolutely no wiggle at all.  Rice has only managed to pass the 3.0 yards per carry mark once in a game and that came against the Bills where he only rushed the ball five times for 17 yards and he’s only passed the 50 yard mark once this season (74 yards on 27 carries against Miami).  Ray Rice has been absolutely awful and there is no way I’d want him in my lineup, he needs to luck into a touchdown at this point to provide any sort of fantasy points and he is going up against a Bengals defense that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since week three. 

Deangelo Williams

If the over/under was set at 1.5 for how many more games I believed Deangelo Williams would score double digit fantasy points in I Imagewould take the under without hesitation.  The Carolina Panthers may very well be the only team in the NFL that uses a true running back committee and it works for them (8th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, 6th in rushing touchdowns) but it provides very little value for fantasy owners.  The Panthers like to play both Deangleo Williams and Jonathan Stewart fairly evenly in between the 20′s and they leave the goal line work for Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton; the days of Williams receiving 23 carries like he did against the Giants earlier this year are long gone.  The Panthers have been doing this for years so to hold out hope that either Williams or Stewart will seize more of a lead role frankly just seems foolish.  Williams came in as my 35th ranked running back this week.

Larry Fitzgerald

According to Pro Football Focus, the Arizona Cardinals have the worst offensive line in football in terms of pass protection which is worrisome for a team that has Carson Palmer for their quarterback because he is absolutely awful when facing pressure.  Palmer this Imageseason has completed 69.1% of his passes for 1449 yards, 9 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for a quarterback rating of 93.5 on plays where he is facing no pressure.  When he has had to deal with a pass rush though, Palmer has only completed 47.65 of his passes for 464 yards, 1 touchdown and 7 interceptions for a quarterback rating of 35.4.  The stats show us that Palmer can be a good NFL quarterback if he’s given time and a clean pocket but that he is virtually inept as soon as there is pressure in the pocket.  I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but Houston has this guy named JJ Watt… he’s pretty good at rushing the quarterback.  Watt has looked like the defensive MVP so far this season and with him as their anchor the Texans boast the 7th highest grades pass rush (again according to pro football focus).  The Texans have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season and I’m expecting a long game filled with poor throws from Palmer as the Texans defensive line should have few issues getting to him.

Tony Gonzalez

Tony Gonzalez was able to find some room last week against some zone coverages by the Panthers but other then a few instances, Imagehe’s struggled to get open since the Falcons lost Julio Jones.  Without Julio or Roddy White there to threaten defenses on the outside, teams have appeared to make more of a concerted effort to stop Gonzalez, attempting to force Matt Ryan to spread the ball around.  Gonzalez has been facing relentless double, sometimes triple teams in the past few weeks and there have been instances where he wasn’t even able to get off the line because he’s had two guys lining up on top of him.  Last week the Falcons put him in motion a few times and lined him up off the line of scrimmage so he could get more of a free release on the snap and he was able to find some space a few times and I’m sure they’ll try that again this weekend; I expect Gonzalez to spend most of this game on the line of scrimmage though thanks to the value he adds as a run blocker.  The Seahawks are a much better pass defense then they are run defense (Mike James ran on them for 150+ yards last week) and I’m expecting the Falcons to come in prepared to pound the football with the run game which will require more blocking from Gonzalez and less route running.  When the Falcons do throw the ball, the Seahawks should be able to match up their corners in one on ones with Roddy White and Harry Douglas and they have big, physical safeties patrolling the middle who are capable of staying with Gonzalez and I believe Matt Ryan will be closer to having 27 pass attempts like last week than the 61 he had two weeks ago.

 

Twitter: @william_moy6

Email: william.moy16

Week 10: Love List

The love list and hate list are coming to you as two separate posts again this week so make sure you check back tomorrow for the hate.  If you haven’t checked out my ranks yet (quarterbacks/running backs; wide receivers/tight ends; defenses) though make sure you get on that, especially if you have players going in tonight’s game!  As always, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @william_moy6 or by email at william.moy16@gmail.com.

Love List

Russell Wilson

One of the challenges that Russell Wilson has had to overcome this year has been a very shaky wilson getty imagesoffensive line.  According to ESPN Stats and Information, going into week nine, Wilson had been pressured on 39% of his drop backs which is more than any other quarterback.  Wilson has completed 72% of his passes this season when he isn’t under pressure compared to only 48% of his throws when he is under pressure and five of his six interceptions have come on plays where he was pressured.  Wilson, like most good NFL quarterbacks, can make good throws when he’s given time and can also make good reads and find the weakness in blitzes but struggles (relatively, Wilson is better than many quarterbacks at handling pressure but he is a significantly weaker quarterback when facing it rather than having a clean pocket) when an opposing defensive line can create pressure all on its own.  Enter the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons have the 6th worst pass rush in the NFL according to the good people at Pro Football Focus and are 24th in the NFL with 18 sacks.  Wilson should have more time to work in the pocket against the Falcons then he’s used to, and his past indicates that the extra time could lead to very good things for Wilson and his fantasy owners.  I have Wilson as a top five quarterback this week against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season.

Zac Stacy

Zac Stacy made the love list this week not necessarily because I love the match up, the Colts have actually been pretty good against the run, but because I love his skills and I believe that he has moved himself into the top 15 running back discussion.  Going forward, if I’m a Zac Stacy owner then I want him in my line up every week, regardless of who the opponent is.  Stacy took over the Rams starting running back job in week five and in the five games since he has averaged 94.2 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  If you haven’t had an opportunity to watch Stacy play I encourage you to at least venture over to the YouTube and check out some of his highlights.  The rookie out of Vanderbilt is the closest thing to a wrecking ball running through the line of scrimmage and my goodness is he entertaining to watch.  Stacy is only 5’8″ but he’s 225 pounds and as explosive as they come; he’s quick, powerful and when he hits a hole it a) looks like he’s being shot out of a cannon, and b) when someone eventually makes contact the impact is so forceful it also sounds like he’s being shot out of a cannon.  If I were an NFL safety, Stacy would be one of the last running backs I’d want to meet in the hole because he has the ability to run through you at one moment and then around you the next.  I love Stacy moving forward: he has all of the tools necessary to be a great running back in the NFL and in a Kellen Clemens led offense he’s being leaned on heavily and so far he’s responded tremendously.  No running back is currently a safer bet to receive 25 touches every week and I’ll take 25 touches from Zac Stacy any week on my fantasy squad, no matter who his opponent is.

stacyGIF

Shonn Greene

In his first full game back, the former Jets running back carried the ball nine times for 38 yards and a touchdown.  The Titans plan on using the fifth year back as the change of pace back nextNFL: Preseason-Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans to Chris Johnson and Titans coach Mike Munchak has come out and said recently that they are going to try to get Greene roughly 15 carries a game if things are going well.  I doubt there will be many games this year where Greene actually reaches that 15 touch total but if there is going to be any game he does it you would think it would be against the Jaguars and their 32nd ranked run defense.  The Jaguars are giving up over 160 yards per game on the ground and they have given up multiple rushing touchdowns in each of their last three games.  Greene is going to handle the bulk of short yardage situations moving forward– he was given three carries inside the 10 yard line last week, one of which he scored a touchdown on– and will also get a fair share of carries between the twenties as well.  I think Greene has an excellent shot at scoring a touchdown this weekend, I think he’s a flex play in standard leagues and I think he could be a solid rb2 in deeper formats this week against Jacksonville.

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen has been a frequent member of both the love list and my free agent finds each keenan allen Denis Poroy APweek and for good reason.  The rookie out of Cal has scored at least 15 fantasy points in three out of his last four games and has scored at least six fantasy points in every week since he’s been a starter.  Allen is an extremely talented receiver who is the number one option for a team that is averaging exactly 300 passing yards per game.  Pro Football Focus has Allen graded as the 10th best receiver in the NFL in terms of receiving performance alone (their overall grade incorporates things like run blocking and penalties) and the film has given me every reason to believe that this level of performance is sustainable.  Allen is a dynamic receiver who is so much further along then a standard rookie receiver in the NFL.  Allen will go over the middle, he can go deep on the outside, he can run out of the slot, the Chargers set up screens for him, he’s a clean route runner, he’s great at getting open, he has excellent hands, the list of Allen’s positives goes on and on.  Allen is my 15th ranked wide receiver this week as the Chargers get to face off against a Broncos defense that has given up the 7th most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season.

http://www.chargers.com/multimedia/videos/Keenan-Allen-16-yard-touchdown-catch/6ceaf3ad-558d-47df-8176-ced5e4c4630f

The move Allen put on Redskins cornerback, David Amerson, to get open on this touchdown catch last week was absolutely filthy.

Jordan Reed

Fantasy owners who expected big things out of Reed last week against the Chargers were likely disappointed by his four point performance but I urge owners to be patient.  The nature of the Jordan Reed, Harry E Walker Getty Imagestight end position in football these days leads to many hit-or-miss weeks, even Jimmy Graham had a zero point game, and last weeks game against the Chargers was just one of those games for Reed.  Going forward Reed should continue to develop into a very large role within the Redskins passing attack and his sheer athleticism from the tight end position provides many of the same match up problems that teams face when they have to go up against Graham, Gronk or Jordan Cameron.  Last week Reed had to face a well rested Chargers defense that has been pretty good against tight ends so far this season (they have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season) whereas this week he gets to go up against a Vikings defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends, including a 16 point performance from Jason Witten last week (eight catches, 102 yards and a touchdown).  Reed is 4th in my tight end rankings this week and should be started in all formats.

Timothy Wright

The Buccaneers tight end has now scored at least nine fantasy points in three out of his last Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Seattle Seahawksfour games, including two games in a row of double digit fantasy points leading into this weeks game against the Dolphins.  The rookie out of Rutgers has emerged as one of Mike Glennon’s favorite targets and I would not be surprised Wright is a TE1 by the end of the season.  Wright is a little bit smaller than your typical tight end– only about 6’3″ and 240 pounds– but what he lacks in size he makes up for with speed and athleticism.  Ever since Glennon took over as the starting quarterback, Wright has averaged almost 5 catches and just over 50 yards per game to go along with two touchdowns.  I believe Wright has the ability to emerge from the middling tier of tight ends that occupy the 10-15 range each week in the ranks and he should have a pretty good opportunity to do so this week against the Dolphins.  Tight ends have been completely incognito on the field against Miami this season (sorry, had to at least once), especially in the red zone which is evident by the fact that they have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends this season largely thanks to the six touchdowns they have surrendered to the position.

 

Tennessee Titans Defense

The Titans are the lucky team who gets to face off against the Jaguars this week.  The Titans are already a very solid defensive unit and this week they’re playing an offense that is just simplyWesley Hitt, Getty Images pathetic.  The Jaguars are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses and they have given up multiple sacks in all games except for one, they have had multiple turnovers in all but two games and they have given up a defensive touchdown in half of the games they have played so far this season.  No opposing defense has scored fewer than seven fantasy points against the Jags and defenses have scored double digit fantasy points against Jacksonville in six out of eight games.  The Titans defense has been flying off of free agency throughout the week but they’re still available in a ton of leagues.  The Titans are my number two defense this week and should be one of the safest plays in fantasy this week.

 

Week 10 Ranks: The Defenses

If you haven’t checked out my other positional ranks yet for week 10 make sure you do!  Here are the quarterback and running back ranks and here are the wide receiver and tight end ranks.  Make sure you check back later in the week for my love/hate and my free agent finds as well!

Defenses

Image1) Seattle Seahawks @ Atl

2) Tennessee Titans v Jax

3) San Francisco 49ers v Car

4) Cincinnati Bengals @ Bal

5) Arizona Cardinals v Hou

6) Carolina Panthers @ SF

7) Indianapolis Colts v Stl

8) Miami Dolphins @ TB

9) Baltimore Ravens v Cin

10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Mia

11) Buffalo Bills @ Pit

12) Houston Texans @ Ari

13) Philadelphia Eagles @ GB

14) Oakland Raiders @ NYG

15) Green Bay Packers v Phi

 

Twitter: @william_moy6

Email: william.moy16@gmail.com